谢谢关注缓慢思考！

　　原文来自Marc在斯坦福商学院的一次分享，表达了他对VC和技术未来的一些看法。两个观点值得思考 1）好的VC应该无情地开放，远离自我 2）与其过度分析未来，不如思考发生的结果

　　When Marc Andreessen wants to think about deep issues like the state of the economy and technological change, he mentally spars with the likes of Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and Larry Page — the people he says are the most audacious people who have worked in Silicon Valley. “I have a little simulation of Peter Thiel. He lives on my shoulder right here. I argue with him all day long.”

　　当Marc Andreessen想要思考经济状况和技术变革这样的深层次问题时，他精神上可以与Peter Thiel，Elon Musk和Larry Page等人匹敌，atv，这些人都是硅谷最大胆的人。 “我有一点模仿Peter Thiel。他住在我肩上。我从早到晚都和他辩论。“

　　Imaginary arguments, he says, allow you to sharpen your thinking against people smarter than you. “You want to kind of construct a model of how they think and be able to be very objective and fair — where you can think things through from their standpoint,” he says. “Then you have your own view on things. Then you try to run through in your head what you know of them and say, OK, here are the conclusions that they would reach. If you put enough time into that, you start to be able to have these conversations with yourself. People might look at you funny while it’s happening, but you get to engage in this dialogue.”

　　虚构的辩论可以让你的思维在与比你更聪明的人的对抗中变得更清晰。“你要建立一个他们如何思考并能够做到客观公平的模型 — 这样你就可以从他们的角度来思考事情。” 他说， “你有自己的看法。然后，你试图通过你的头脑知道他们会得到的结论。如果你有足够的时间，你可以开始与自己进行这些对话。这时候，人们可能会看着你有趣，而你会沉浸在这个对话里。”

　　During a View From the Toptalk with students at Stanford Graduate School of Business, Andreessen shared insights and advice about the role of technology in a changing economy, how to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves throughout a career, and why the best ideas are likely already out there waiting to happen.

　　在与斯坦福大学商学院学生进行的《高端视点》对话中，Andreessen分享了他关于技术在不断变化的经济中的作用的见解和建议，如何抓住职业生涯中的机会，以及为什么最好的想法可能已经在发生了。

　　Tech Isn’t a Job-Killer 技术不是一个就业的杀手

　　“There are more jobs around the world than ever before,” Andreessen says, and income levels have never been higher. “So if technological change were going to cause elimination of jobs, one presumes we would have seen it by now.”

　　Andreessen说：“世界上的工作比任何时候都要多，收入水平也从未如此之高。 所以如果技术变革会导致工作岗位的消失，那么我们现在就应该看见了。”

　　The more pressing question, Andreessen says, is how to harness the constant state of flux in the economy. Self-driving cars, for example, could potentially put 5 million people involved in transportation jobs out of work. And creating 5 million new jobs for them seems impossible with net monthly job gains typically in the hundreds of thousands. “Five million jobs seem like a lot of jobs. It is a lot,” Andreessen says. But looking at the big picture shows that “every year in the U.S. on average about 21 million jobs are destroyed and about 24.5 million are created,” Andreessen says. “So the real answer to how do you replace 5 million jobs is, we already replace that in less than a quarter [of a year] today.”

　　Andreessen说，更紧迫的问题是如何利用经济中永恒存在的变化。例如，自动驾驶可能会使运输相关工作的500万人失业。为他们创造500万个新工作看起来似乎是不可能的，因为月净新增工作通常在数十万。 “500万个工作似乎是很多工作岗位。的确很多，“ Andreessen说。但是从更大的画面看 “美国每年平均有2100万个工作消失，但又有约2450万个新工作被创造了，所以回答如何替代500万个就业岗位的真正答案是：今天我们已经可以在不到四分之一年的时间内替代这些工作了。”

　　Starting from the point of view that jobs are going to change — rather than disappear — means you can focus on more important questions. “How do we set people up to be able to take advantage of the change? How do we have change work for people? How do we expand opportunities?” he says. “The conversation I think we ought to be having is on the things we could do to have more people have access to all the opportunity that the new technology in many cases is creating.”