当对生活方式的宽容和对移民的不宽容两种情绪对撞的时候，矛盾的思辨就出现了：是不是所有群体和族群都应该被宽容？于是社会中开始出现了激进右派们的生存空间，他们开始用「国民生活方式」这种理论去对抗那些还没有融入西方自由主义价值观的新进移民。荷兰的平·佛图恩，一位公开同性恋身份的政治家，就用他毫不遮掩的恐伊斯兰主张召集起一个新兴极右翼社团。同样的具有欺骗性的言辞，还培育出了荷兰的新自由党，以色列现在的民族主义者，法国的玛丽娜勒庞，以及像布赖特巴特新闻编辑米洛扬诺普洛斯这样的特朗普支持者们。如果确如罗纳德·英格尔哈特以及皮帕·诺里斯等学者预言的，伊斯兰和西方世界之间的矛盾持续上升，甚至盖过了原本应该追求的社会自由，那么全世界的媒体和人民就会把这种国际矛盾转化成社会内部的矛盾，而这种内化了的矛盾形态会重塑所有西方社会的民主制度。这也许就是21世纪以来，以色列的西方政治模型坍塌的原因，原本延续着中-左路线的劳动党，被现有的少数民族主义政党利库德、家园党和前进党取代。

　　Loss of faith in international institutions

　　丧失对国际机构的信任

　　As national identity has grown and resentment of international migrants increased, there has been a corresponding loss of faith in the value and purpose of international organizations, including the European Union, United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the so-called Bretton Woods institutions. That is most evident in Europe, where since 1990, the European Values Study has asked respondents in Europe their degree of confidence in the European Community, and since 1995, the European Union.

　　国家认同感的抬升和对移民的怨恨增加，相应也增加了人们对于国际机构的怀疑和不信任——包括欧盟、联合国、国际货币基金组织以及世界银行和布雷顿森林体系。其中在欧洲的表现最为明显，下图是欧洲价值观研究组织的数据统计，调查显示了受访者1990年来对欧洲共同体以及1995年来对欧盟的信心程度。

　　在进入千禧年后，欧盟不再是一个引人入胜的选项

　　Already in the 1990s, skepticism about the European Union was growing among the publics of major EU member states. While the launch of the euro and the founding of the European Constitutional Convention at the start of the new century may have felt like an apogee for the European project, already by this point a majority of respondents in major EU member states felt distrust in European institutions. Further efforts at European integration have been forced against the will of European publics, as evinced from the Dutch and French votes against the European Constitution in 2005, or the Irish rejection of the Nice Treaty in 2001 and the Lisbon Treaty in 2008. The vote for Brexit in 2016 shows the inherent limits in elite-led integration — and the project of global governance more generally.

　　从上世纪90年代开始，对欧盟的质疑之声就在其主要成员国中扩散开来。随着欧元进程和本世纪初欧盟宪法条约的推进，欧洲一体化工程似乎来到了一个顶峰，而正是在这个高峰点上主流欧盟成员却并不信任欧盟本身。关于欧洲一体化的推进实际上违背了民意——就像荷兰与法国在2005年反对欧盟宪法的公投，爱尔兰先后在2001年和2008年拒绝尼斯条约与里斯本条约。2016年的英国脱欧公投则显示出了精英团体领导的一体化所具备的局限性，而这种局限性在全球治理范畴更为显著。

　　How did we get here?

　　何以至此？

　　Why have citizens across Western democracies become increasingly nationalistic, opposed to mass migration, and suspicious of international institutions? One answer is that this is a consequence of the financial crisis, which has left deep pockets of economic deprivation and underemployment. But that answer is clearly wrong, because these trends have been in place for the better part of 30 years. A more accurate answer would be that they reflect an inherent tension between national democratic sovereignty and elite-led efforts at global integration, and that this tension has now reached its breaking point.