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　　本文来自美国Redpoint VC的合伙人Mahesh的博客。文章收集了各个渠道披露的Uber的收入和亏损数据，形成对收入规模和增长的预测，并和上市的互联网公司对比。简单讲，如果参照Facebook的待遇（这是互联网公司绝无仅有的待遇），10倍P/S，开奖，Uber最多值1250亿美金。如果6倍P/S，上一轮投资人基本上就不用想挣钱了。既然说了Uber，我用同样的框架在后面补充了几句对滴滴的估值看法，纯属探讨，不要骂街。

　　At a $68B valuation, Uber is worth more than GM, Ford, Honda, and most other auto makers (save for Toyota, Daimler, Volkswagen and BMW). In fact, Uber is also worth more than most large cap internet companies including titans such as Netflix ($50B), PayPal ($50B), Baidu ($58B), and eBay ($32B). To put things into perspective, the only US public internet companies worth MORE than Uber right now are Apple ($578B), Google ($525B), Microsoft ($462B), Amazon ($350B), Facebook ($350B), and Priceline (just barely at $71B).

　　按照Uber680亿美元的估值，Uber的价值超过了通用汽车、福特、本田和大多数其他汽车制造商（除了丰田、戴姆勒、大众和宝马）。事实上，Uber的价值也超过大多数大型互联网公司，包括Netflix（500亿美元），PayPal（500亿美元），百度（580亿美元）和eBay（320亿美元）等巨头。换个角度看，目前比Uber价值更高的美国上市互联网公司只有苹果（5780亿美元），谷歌（5250亿美元），微软（4620亿美元），亚马逊（3500亿美元），Facebook（3500亿美元） Priceline（刚刚710亿美元）。

　　Uber is growing incredibly quickly, but losses are also growing. Using public information only, I've cobbled together Uber's revenue and net loss metrics that I found from various press leaks. Naturally, there are some inconsistencies and gaps in the data, and so I made my own estimates where necessary in order to get a sense for Uber's income statement. By understanding their P&L and growth trajectory, we can make some rough estimates for what a 2017 IPO could look like. Let's first look at Uber's quarterly net revenue.

　　Uber的增长速度令人难以置信，但亏损也同步增加。使用公开信息，我把Uber从各种新闻报道中提到的收入和净亏损指标拼凑在一起。不用说，数据存在一些不一致和差距，因此我在必要时进行了自己的估计，以便对Uber的损益表有一个概貌的了解。通过了解他们的损益和增长轨迹，我们可以对2017年IPO的情况进行一些粗略估计。让我们先看看Uber的季度净收入。

　　What a growth ramp! Keep in mind that Uber's net revenue is net of paying drivers and so actual GMV is roughly 5x these amounts (~20% net revenue margin). Most of Uber's 2012 and 2013 numbers were leaked, as well as some quarterly metrics for 2014-2016. Growth has always been strong, but there was a massive step function in 2014 and 2015, largely driven by international expansion. Most recently, Uber did $960M net revenue in Q1 2016 and then grew a "modest" 15% in Q2 2016 to $1.1B. These impressive net revenue figures, however, came at a steep cost.

　　增长曲线太惊人了！请记住，Uber的净收入是扣除了支付司机的收入，因此实际GMV大约是这些金额的5倍（约20％的净收入利润）。Uber2012年和2013年的大部分数字都有透露，2014-2016年的一些季度指标也有报道。增长一直很强劲，但在2014年和2015年有巨大的阶跃，主要是由于国际扩张推动。最近，Uber 2016年第一季度的净收入为9.6亿美元，2016年第二季度增长还可以，达到15％，收入为11亿美元。然而，这些令人印象深刻的净收入数字背后却是高昂的成本。

　　Data for net income (or net loss) is less reported and harder to make estimates for. While net revenue has been growing fairly consistently, losses can spike and narrow at the company's whim and largely depends on factors such as competition, market expansion, marketing spend, and so forth. Regardless, the general trend is captured above. Most recently, Uber lost $570M in Q1 2016 and $750M in Q2 2016. It's unclear whether losses will shrink or grow in the back half of 2016 so I kept them flat at $750M.

　　净利润（或净亏损）的数据报道较少，因此难以估计。虽然净收入增长相当稳定，净亏损的飙升和下降则取决于公司的的意愿，并且很大程度上取决于诸如竞争、市场扩张、营销支出等因素。无论如何，上面总体趋势是没问题的。最近，Uber在2016年第一季度亏损了5.7亿美元，2016年第二季度亏损了7.5亿美元。目前还不清楚2016年下半年的亏损会减少还是增长，所以我保持在7.5亿美元。

　　Looking at annualized numbers:

　　看看年化的数字：