谢谢关注缓慢思考！这是第一篇我用iPad Pro完成的blog ：-）。

原文来自Union Square Venture的合伙人Fred Wilson的blog。他发现给他带来巨大回报的投资大都是当初被人嘲笑的投资。他发现Bill Gurley也有类似的言论，实际上真正的来源是橡树资本Howard Mark的2*2的投资思考框架—即正确&non-consensus. Enjoy！

I am going down to Princeton today to talk to Ed Zschau's class on entrepreneurship today. Ed asked me what I wanted to talk about. I told him "return and ridicule".

今天我要去普林斯顿，和Ed Zschau班上的学生说说创业。Ed问我今天准备说什么，我告诉他题目是：“回报和嘲笑”。

I have found that return and ridicule are highly correlated over the years. We have made more money on things that were highly ridiculed than on any other cohort. When I see people laughing at ideas and companies we have backed, I smile. It means we are going to make a lot of money on that investment.

我发现回报和嘲笑多年来高度相关。我们从那些被人广为嘲笑的投资上赚的钱超过了其他任何一类。当我看到人们嘲笑我们投资的想法和公司的时候，我就露出微笑。这意味着我们可能为此挣许多钱。

I saw Bill Gurleysay that you can only make money by being right about something that most people think is wrong. His logic was that you can't make money by being wrong. And you can't make money by being right about something everyone else knows. So you have to be right about something that most people think is wrong. I really like that framework.

我看到Bill Gurley（Benchmark 合伙人）说过，要想挣钱，你必须在大部分人判断错误的一些事情上判断正确。他的逻辑是，如果你判断错误，你赚不了钱。但是，如果你的判断正确，而其他人的判断也和你一样，你也不可能挣到钱。所以你必须在大多数人认为是错误的东西上是正确的。我真的很喜欢这个框架。

The same logic applies to starting companies. If you start a company in a market everyone knows is going to be big, then you will have a ton of competition. If, however, you start a company in a market everyone is laughing at, you won't have too many competitors.

同样的逻辑适用于创立公司。如果你在一个市场上创建一家公司，每个人都知道这个市场会变得很大，j2直播，那么你将会有一大堆的竞争。然而，如果你在一个市场上开创一家公司，每个人都在笑，你不会有太多的竞争对手。

This notion also plays into Clayton Christensen's framework for disruptive innovation. Many of the most disruptive technologies started out as what Clay calls "toys". The PC is a great example of that. PCs came out of the homebrew computer movement. Geeks were building computers in their garages. And everyone thought they were nuts. But from that came the Apple Computer and the IBM PC and we were off to the races with personal computers.

这个概念也符合Clayton Christensen（哈佛教授）提出的破坏性创新框架。许多最具破坏性的技术开始于Clay所说的“玩具”。PC是一个很好的例子。PC来自于家庭自制电脑运动。极客们那个时候在车库里制作电脑。大家以为他们是疯子。但是苹果计算机公司和IBM PC公司却诞生于此。个人电脑的竞争从此开始。

Chris Dixonhas a great post about hobbyists. He likes to look at what the next homebrew computer club type activities are these days. When I saw Chris yesterday he was talking about drones and asteroids. I laughed. He grinned ear to ear. Chris knows that it's good to be ridiculed.

Chris Dixon有一篇关于业余爱好者的文章。他喜欢观察现在有什么类似下一个自制电脑俱乐部一样的活动。当我看到Chris昨天谈论无人机和小行星的时候，我笑了。他咧着嘴笑。Chris知道被嘲笑是件好事情。

So many folks in the venture capital business are sheep that just want to follow the herd. They are momentum investors purchasing highly illquid investments. That is a recipe for disaster. Momentum investing works in highly liquid markets (sometimes). From what I can tell, it almost never works in private markets.