(Chinese Version)

　　Editor’s Note:

　　As China’s leading business & tech information service provider, TMTPost has always been primarily concerned about new trends in China’s economy and tech industry. In the latest issue of “TMTPost Founder & Tech Gurus”, Zhao Hejuan, founder and CEO of TMTPost, had an interview with Zhang Yansheng, a well-known Chinese scientist and chief researcher at the Academy Committee of National Development and Reform Commission during the 2017 annual meeting of Bo’ao Forum.

　　Each year, Bo’ao Forum will release Asian Economy Forward-Looking Indicator during the annual meeting. Zhang has been invited as counselor to the index for three consecutive years. On March 24th, SAIC Cadillac, together with China Finance and Economic Review, issued the 2017 Asian Economy Forward-Looking Indicator, which aroused heated discussion both among the public.

　　When we look back on the ups and downs of China’s economy in the past few years, we may be amazed by the rapid development of the mobile internet, the rising wave of mass innovation and entrepreneurship as well as the huge potential of the technological revolution. Many people may feel that the world is becoming increasingly “unpredictable”. However, when we look further back to the rapid development of China’s economy in the past three decades, we may find lots of surprising coincidences. For example, while 1992 marks China’s spring of reform and opening up, 2002 marks China’s entry into WTO, lots of historical moments fell in 2012.

　　I’m not joking, but TMTPost also happened to be established in 2012. It is in 2012 that WeChat went viral in China and ushered in a new “social networking evolution”. It is in 2012 that traditional Chinese media went from boom to bust while new media began to rise one after another. It is in 2012 that startups which later can be placed on par with BAT, such as Didi, TouTiao, Xiaomi, MeiTuan, were established or went through rapid growth. It is in 2012 that angel investors began to rise. It is starting from 2012 that a concept marked each year, from mobile internet, personalized search engine to VR, AR, AI, health, new energy… Still, why 2012?

　　Last month, I was invited to participate 2017 annual meeting of Bo’ao Forum. When I saw the 2017 Asian Economy Forward-Looking Indicator, I was shocked. The indicator, which is based on a survey of 508 economists and entrepreneurs, reached 84.1 this year. However, the indicator remains at 45.7 last year. Imagine the surprise when I saw the indicator, especially amidst the overwhelmingly negative attitudes towards the Asian economy on the market.

　　“Asian economy is undergoing a period of restorative growth”, Zhang Yansheng, a well-kwown Chinese economist, observed.

　　During the annual meeting, I also heard many other guest speakers make similar judgments.

　　Zhang also introduced me National R&D Index, a key indicator that determines a country’s transformation from a non-innovative economy to an innovative one. In 2012, China’s NRDI reached a historic high, 2.08. China’s goal is to reach 2.7 by 2025. What does it mean? Well, the US’s NRDI is measured at 2.8 at present.

　　For sure, there is still huge uncertainty in the future. However, one thing is very clear, technological innovation is going to play an increasingly prominent role in China’s national economy.

　　So, how will the Asian macroeconomy develop in 2017? Has the economy posted a solid rebound? What’s the relationship between the trend of Asian macroeconomy and China’s innovation and entrepreneur wave? How will Asian macroeconomy affect China’s primary market? Why can’t new technology development “avoid the Gordon Myth”? What made Zhang believe that “Chinese innovation didn’t make historical progress until 2012”?

　　Only when we grasp the historical rules can we better know the future. It is likely that we can have some tentative answers to these questions from the interview. It is well known that a complete economy cycle last seven to ten days. Therefore, in the next five years, we may enter a “harvest period” in the latest cycle, starting from the year 2012. Or rather, a “disastrous period”?

　　Anyway, who knows? The only thing that doesn’t thing is change, for sure. Be prepared.

　　The following is the tran of the interview, edited by TMTPost editors:

　　The reason behind the sudden rise of Asian Economy Forward-Looking Indicator

　　Zhao Hejuan (hereafter referred to as “Zhao”): As we see today, Asian Economy Forward-Looking Indicator has risen from 45 last year to over 84. So should we really be positive about Asian economy?