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wzatv:回到根本:什么是公司内在价值

时间:2017-02-27 06:15来源:天下彩论坛 作者:j2开奖直播 点击:
原文来自ValueWalk网站,作者不详。文章摘取了巴菲特“股东手册”中对账面价值和内在价值的解释,简单又深刻。简而言之:1)内在价值是个估计值,受利率和预测影响 2)账面价值

  原文来自ValueWalk网站,作者不详。文章摘取了巴菲特“股东手册”中对账面价值和内在价值的解释,简单又深刻。简而言之:1)内在价值是个估计值,受利率和预测影响 2)账面价值和内在价值没什么关系。

  Today, I provide another excerpt from the same Owner's Manual in which Buffett explains the principles that he and Munger use to calculate Intrinsic Value. It's a must read for all investors.

  今天,我从股东手册中摘录另一段关于如何计算公司内在价值的文章,股东手册是巴菲特和芒格解释他们公司运营和投资的基本原则的书。这是所有投资者的必读本。

  Here's another excerpt from Buffett's Owner's Manual:

  以下是股东手册的摘录:

  Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.

  现在让我们关注我前面提到的一个术语,你们在未来的年度报告中也会遇到。

  Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.

  内在价值是一个非常重要的概念,它提供了唯一的逻辑方法来评估投资和公司的相对吸引力。内在价值可以简单的定义成:公司在剩余的生命周期里可以取出的现金的折现值。

  The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value.

  然而,内在价值的计算并不那么简单。如我们的定义所示,内在价值是一个估计值而不是一个精确的数字。而且,如果利率变动或未来现金流的预测被修改了,这个估计值也必须随之改变。此外,即使两个人看到同样的事实包括芒格和我也会不可避免地得出略有不同的内在价值数值。这也是我们从来不给出内在价值的估计的一个原因。

  What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.

  然而,我们的年报提供了我们自己用来计算这个值的事实数据。

  Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values.

  与此同时,我们定期报告我们的每股账面价值,这是一个容易计算的数字,虽然作用有限。其局限性并不来自于我们持有的有价证券是以他们的现有价格记账的缘故。账面价值的缺陷与我们控制的公司有关,这些公司在我们账面体现的价值和他们的内在价值可能相去甚远。

  The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.

  差异可以发生在任一方向上。例如,在1964年,我们可以确切的说伯克希尔的每股账面价值为19.46美元。然而,这个数字大大夸大了公司的内在价值,因为公司的所有资源被维系在一个利润不佳的纺织品业务上。我们的纺织品资产既没有持续经营能力,也没有等于其账面价值的清算价值。然而今天,伯克希尔的情况完全逆转了:现在,我们的账面价值远远低于伯克希尔的内在价值,这是真的,因为我们控制的很多业务的价值远远高于其账面价值。

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